Monte Carlo simulation-based health risk evaluation of trace elements in commercially available dried apricots.

Abstract

This study presents a statistical analysis of trace elements in dried apricot samples, focusing on health risk assessment using data from packaged and unpackaged products. The mean concentrations of essential metals obtained were as follows: aluminum 5.518 mg/kg, boron 3.892 mg/kg, iron 3.247 mg/kg, and zinc 1.162 mg/kg. Analysis of toxic metal concentrations showed a mean level of 0.209 mg/kg for nickel, followed by lead at 0.083 mg/kg. Arsenic and cadmium were present at lower concentrations (0.005 and 0.003 mg/kg, respectively), while vanadium and mercury showed the lowest mean concentrations, at 0.0005 and 0.0004 mg/kg, respectively. The results revealed that the highest concentration among the measured elements was related to aluminum, and the lowest concentration was related to mercury. These findings have implications for Monte Carlo simulations to quantify potential health risks and emphasize the need to monitor toxic metal levels in dried fruit products. Based on Monte Carlo simulations, the dietary exposure to toxic metals from dried apricots posed no significant health risk. The calculated target hazard quotients (THQ) were below 1, indicating negligible noncarcinogenic risk, while the incremental lifetime cancer risks (ILCR) fell within the acceptable range (< 1 × 10⁻4) for both adults and children. In conclusion, dried apricots provide safe nutritional benefits of essential metals with minimal toxic risks at moderate intake, which requires ongoing monitoring and sustainable practices for optimal health safety.